How far are a government’s macroeconomic policy decisions affected by the extent to which the economy is open? Discuss. [25]

This economics essay question is adapted from an actual past year H2 economics essay question but modified to focus on economic decision-making

Generally, governments will face trade-offs when making decisions to choose between different macroeconomic policy objectives. How far are a government’s macroeconomic policy decisions affected by the extent to which the economy is open? Discuss. [25]

Governments often face challenging trade-offs when making macroeconomic policies. When they aim to promote high or steady economic growth, low unemployment, low inflation (or stable prices in the economy), and a healthy balance of payments, and sometimes even promote equity, there may be trade-offs, especially when economic policies are used. A trade-off is when one policy objective conflicts with another, and a choice has to be made between the two conflicting objectives - in other words, one cannot have one's cake and eat it too. 

In this paper, there are clearly defined trade-offs that we could discuss to illustrate the arguments. First, there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment (often taught in schools in the form of the Phillips Curve); second, there is a trade-off between demand-pull inflation and actual economic growth; third, there are trade-offs between promoting economic growth and equity; and finally there may be economic conflicts in dealing with internal as opposed to external stability. 

This paper argues that policy decisions are affected by the extent to which an economy is open, but are also affected by other factors like the size of the economy and the stage of its development, which also need to be considered by governments when making economic policy. 

To achieve these objectives, macroeconomic policies are used - for example, fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies, and supply-side policies. Each of these economic policies affects the parameters that governments are trying to address. For instance, expansionary fiscal policy which involves increasing government spending and reducing direct taxes would lead to an increase in AD, which would increase the level of prices in an economy, if AD were near or at the full employment level. 

However, while this would raise inflation, it would reduce demand-deficient unemployment. In fact, expansionary monetary and devaluations of the exchange rate would also likely cause governments a trade-off between promoting economic growth, which tends to lower unemployment, and demand-pull inflation in general. The government of an open economy would need to take into account the fact that choosing exchange rate policy may lead to such a trade-off. 

An open economy would also face issues of internal and external stability - for example, to maintain a healthy balance of payments, for instance, a devaluation or depreciation of the currency would be useful. But this choice would need to take into consideration the fact that economic growth may increase and unemployment may fall, but inflation may rise! Therefore, it is quite clear that governments' policies are limited by the openness of their economy. 

However, openness is only factor. Other factors that have to be seriously considered are the size of the economy and the level of development of the economy. First, taking Singapore as an example - as Singapore is a small and open economy - Many of the demand-management policies, like fiscal and monetary policies, cannot be used. With a small multiplier (k = 1/mpw), and a relatively large external sector, exchange rate policies are more useful. In addition, supply-side policies - which may not address every economic problem we are facing - could be used, sparingly. 

Yet, this is not to say that larger economies can easily use economic policies as well - they would also face limitations to each policy, such as the Keynesian liquidity trap and interest insensitivity for expansionary monetary policy, and the crowding out effect for larger economies which would lead to a countervailing reduction in C and I for a rise in G. 

Development is important as well. Macroeconomic policies to achieve competing objectives do not have to be limited to traditional fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and supply side policies - with globalisation, protectionist measures, the promotion of free trade through FTAs, and the use of international and regional institutions to promote growth and development also matter. A smaller, less developed country, for instance, when faced with openness could even use a range of policies - Import Substituting Industrialisation (ISI) at first and then maybe Export Oriented Industrialisation (EOI) later on. 

In the final analysis, to a large extent the state of an economy - being open, small or large, or developed - does affect a government’s macro policy decisions. In Singapore's case, policymakers must always take into account the fact that we are small and open, and therefore need to understand what policies we can and should take. At the end of the day, there will always be trade-offs, and a rational decision has to be made. 

JC Economics Essays - Economics editor's comments: A few years ago, I worked out some draft answers and responses with some of my former economics students. This piece was one of the economics essays that we had worked out for the 2012 H2 A level economics paper. However, because it is a draft, there are a few questions that students or readers should ask: How can this be improved? Other than examples from Singapore, what other countries could be used as examples? Always remember to give relevant examples that fit the question's requirements. Also, this paper is very strong in economic theory as my former students were good in theory - but moving beyond economic theory, could there be greater relevance to the question? The evaluation could also be much improved - while it makes the required moves by signposting and giving a few opinions, it could have a lot more detail. All considered, for a 25 mark economics essay, this answer is quite good as a response by a team of students. Thank you for reading and cheers! 

This is an economics blog that deals with economics views, perspectives, and opinions, as well as a range of economics essays aimed at A level economics students and IB students, even undergraduate economics students. There is a wide-range of materials on many economics topics and themes. Thank you for reading and cheers. 

Discuss whether governments should rely solely on supply-side policies to achieve its macroeconomic aims. [15]

(Please see previous post on JC Economics Essays on macroeconomic aims and conflicts.)

Explain the possible conflicts in the achievement of macroeconomic aims when using demand-management policies. [10] 

In the light of these macroeconomic conflicts, discuss whether governments should rely solely on supply-side policies to achieve its macroeconomic aims. [15]

This paper argues that in the light of these conflicts, supply-side policies which focus on shifting the SRAS and LRAS can be used by governments to avoid these macroeconomic conflicts. However, on the other hand, supply-side policies also have limitations and may also result in other macroeconomic conflicts. Hence, it may not necessarily be true that governments should rely solely on supply-side policies.

On the one hand, it can be argued that there are some important reasons why governments should rely solely on supply-side policies.

Firstly, supply-side policies should be used to avoid conflict between achieving full employment and price stability. Since expansionary demand management policies will always lead to inflationary pressures, especially as the economy approaches full employment, supply-side policies should be used instead. If governments focus on increasing productivity of the economy, for example, through subsidising R&D efforts and retraining programmes, the LRAS of the economy will increase  and shift to the right. This allows the economy to achieve both actual and potential growth, while keeping general price levels low. There is thus no conflict between increasing real output and employment and price stability.

Secondly, supply-side policies should be used to avoid conflict between achieving healthy balance of payments and price stability. Since currency depreciation to keep exports competitive may result in imported inflation, supply-side policies should be used to maintain export competitiveness instead. For example, the government may choose to encourage firms to invest in R&D, through the use of tax rebates, in order to use more efficient production techniques. This can cause costs of production to fall and prices of exports can remain competitive. For example, the US government has anti-monopoly laws to encourage more competition. This may give firms more incentive to improve the quality of their products and exports can also be more competitive if their quality is superior to products made in other countries. These would help boost the demand for exports and increase export revenue. The demand for imports might fall if local consumers prefer buying domestic goods. Import expenditure may fall too. This causes the current account and hence the balance of payments to improve. At the same time, because of the increase in R&D across industries, the productive capacity of the economy may increase and LRAS may increase. This helps to keep general price levels low. Hence there is no conflict between achieving a healthy balance of payments and price stability.

However, when (X-M) increases, AD would increase and if the economy is approaching full employment level, there would be inflationary pressures. Thus the extent to which price stability can be achieved depends on the pace of the increase in LRAS. If the LRAS is increasing at the same pace as AD, price stability can be maintained. If AD rises much faster, the conflict with price stability would still arise.

Thirdly, supply-side policies should be used to avoid conflict between achieving healthy balance of payments and economic growth. When expansionary demand management policies to help achieve economic growth, there will be an increase in import expenditure, resulting in a worsening current account and hence balance of payments. However, if supply-side policies are used to attract FDI to promote economic growth instead, the capital and financial account is likely to improve. For example, the government might lower corporate tax rates or offer foreign firms incentives such as tax rebates in order to attract them. They may also reduce the red-tape to make application processes for new foreign businesses more efficient. If there is a net inflow of FDI, the capital and financial account will improve and this may offset the worsening current account. Hence, balance of payments may improve. However, it should be noted that, in the long run, the current account of the balance of payments may worsen even more as profits from foreign firms are sent back to their home country.

On the other hand, supply-side policies also do have their limitations and hence governments should not rely solely on them. While it is true that supply-side policies can help to some extent to avoid some of the conflicts in achieving macroeconomic aims, they also have their shortcomings. For example, supply-side policies like encouraging firms to invest in R&D can not only be costly, they may take a long time before any effects are seen, and even then, the success of these policies is very uncertain. Subsidising R&D can cause a strain on the government budget, depending on how substantial the subsidies are. Since R&D efforts tend to be costly, firms would probably only be incentivised to invest in R&D if the subsidies are significant. This is in contrast with demand management policies like MP where the government need not tap on budget reserves. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that R&D efforts would lead to increase efficiency. The effects of research can be uncertain and often takes many years before a breakthrough brought about by technology or discovery of new methods can be seen. Hence, it may be wise to also make use of some demand-management policies which may have more certain and immediate effects. This is especially so if the economy is facing a recession and needs to get out of it quickly. If there is severe demand-pull inflation, the government may need to take quick action to reduce AD in order to reduce general price levels. Using supply-side policies to shift the LRAS may take too long, especially if the policies are targeted at increasing productivity through technology, training and R&D. If AD is in the Classical range and there is demand-pull inflation, shifting SRAS downward, for instance by subsiding costs, may not help either, since there is no more spare capacity to increase output even if costs are reduced. The inflation will thus not be alleviated. Thus it would not be wise to solely rely on supply-side policies.

It would be better to argue that both demand management and supply-side policies can be used together. While expansionary fiscal or monetary policies can be used to stimulate AD and growth, supply-side policies can be used to ensure that LRAS can continue to increase so that when the economy recovers from the recession, the general price levels may still be kept relatively low.

Furthermore, when using supply-side policies, there may also be conflicts in the achievement of macroeconomic aims which arise and hence governments should not rely solely on them. When supply-side policies such as investment in more R&D and technology are used, there are also other conflicts which may arise. Hence it may not be wise to solely depend on supply-side policies as they also bring about unintended consequences. For example, in Singapore, with the government’s push to increase productivity through encouraging more firms to use technology, for example through the Productivity and Innovation Credit Scheme (PIC), not all workers will be able to adapt. Some workers without the relevant skills may find themselves out of a job. Also, with the rise in the use of technology, some workers may be replaced by machines. If these workers do not have other skills which are relevant to the changing needs of employers, they will face structural unemployment. Hence, pursuing actual and potential growth quickly via supply-side policies may result in a conflict with achieving low unemployment.

However, this does not mean that supply-side policies should not be used. Instead, there can be other policies put in place to mitigate these unintended consequences. For example, governments can put in place retraining programmes and provide subsidies to firms to encourage them to upgrade the skills of their employees.

In the final analysis, in the light of these conflicts, whether or not governments should rely solely on supply-side policies depends on the macroeconomic aims the government is trying to pursue; the prevailing economic conditions; and the nature of the economy. First, if the government wants to achieve sustainable economic growth, it would be wise not to depend only on supply-side policies. This is because supply side policies tend to help achieve potential growth but can be slow in achieving actual growth. If both demand management and supply-side policies are used, actual and potential growth can be achieved together. This helps ensure sustainable economic growth. Some conflicts between macro-economic aims can be avoided when using supply-side policies as discussed above. Hence, supply-side policies alone may be adopted where appropriate. However, it is important to note that supply-side policies may also result in other problems and hence in those instances, relying solely on supply-side policies may not be appropriate. Second, if the economy is facing cost-push inflation, the government may want to rely solely on supply-side policies to increase SRAS in order to reduce general price levels. Using demand management policies in such a situation may be inappropriate because while general price levels may fall with contractionary fiscal or monetary policies, there will be a conflict with growth as real output falls. If the economy is facing a severe recession, the economy is likely to be operating rather far away from the full employment level. This means that expansionary demand management policies are unlikely to cause a conflict with price stability. Thus, the best measure may be to use expansionary fiscal or monetary policies which has quicker and more certain effects than supply-side policies. Third, if the economy has a small multiplier, the effectiveness of demand-management policies may be limited. For example, in Singapore, due to high MPM and MPS, the multiplier is small, any increase in government spending would lead to a small increase in real national income. Thus the government tends to focus on the use of supply-side policies, and depend on external demand instead. However, this does not mean that the Singapore government relies solely on the use of supply-side policies. A mix of both demand management and supply-side policies are considered too.

JC Economics Essays: Once again, special thanks to W for her kind contribution of this well-written economics essay. However, this economics essay was not done under timed examination conditions and was planned and argued carefully. An economics student who delivers this level of content and argumentation within the examination conditions would easily and likely score a grade A. 

This economics paper discusses the pros and cons of relying on supply side policy, and tackles the question through a few important angles. What are these perspectives? Do test yourself to see if you understand the various arguments made and the perspectives through which the arguments were made. 

There are also, of course, many good points to learn from this paper. First, it directly addresses the question. It also has many strong arguments followed up with examples, which suggests that the candidate has learnt her economics material well. It makes many good analytical points by logical, reasonable argument, and does not reply on assertions and stating points. Remember to always argue a point or make a point in your essays. This economics essay is also very well written and crafted, and is clear cut, accurate, and to the point; however, on the other hand, perhaps some economics diagrams could have been drawn. What economics diagrams would you have drawn in this case, and why? Economics essays often benefit from a relevant, well labelled, and accurate diagram that illustrates and analyses a point. Thanks for reading and cheers!

Explain the possible conflicts in the achievement of macroeconomic aims when using demand-management policies. [10]

This paper explains possible conflicts in the achievement of macroeconomic aims. When governments utilise demand management policies, there may be conflicts or trade offs amongst those goals. The most common conflict is the conflict between achieving full employment and price stability. There are also other conflicts such as those between achieving internal and external stability. This paper explains various possible conflicts in the achievement of macroeconomic aims when governments use demand management policies, such as fiscal and monetary policies.

First, demand management policies such as expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are often used to achieve full employment. For example, when there is an increase in government spending as governments spend on building infrastructure to boost economic activity, there is an increase in AD and hence an increase in real national income. As more resources are employed, the economy operates closer to full employment. However, there is a trade off as the economy will also face demand pull inflation as demand rises and bids up costs of factors of production. Demand pull inflation is defined as a persistent, sustained, and inordinate increase in the general price level due to increases in AD near or at the full employment level. Many fast developing countries like China with fast-rising AD and increasingly less spare capacity will likely face this conflict. On the other hand, contractionary fiscal and monetary policies can be used to reduce demand pull inflation, but this in turn conflicts with economic growth and employment, thus posing yet another trade off.

Second, as expansionary demand management policies are used to achieve economic growth, the balance of payments may worsen. For example, if interest rates are lowered to reduce costs of borrowing, households will borrow more to spend on consumer durables and firms may also invest more as expected net profitability increases. This leads to an increase in AD and real national income. However, the demand for imports and hence import expenditure increases too. This is because many consumer durables may be imported and firms may also import raw materials and machineries for their investments. Assuming that export revenue does not rise as quickly, the balance of trade worsens. Ceteris paribus, the current account and hence balance of payments worsens. Thus countries like Singapore with high MPM will be more likely to suffer from this conflict. This is because the increase in import expenditure is larger when national income increases. Vice versa, contractionary demand management policies to correct or address a balance of trade deficit can conflict with economic growth and employment.

If a country wants to achieve economic growth, it may choose to use expansionary monetary policy to increase AD. When interest rates are lowered, the cost of borrowing is lowered. This causes households to borrow more to purchase consumer durables such as televisions and refrigerators. This causes C to increase. Firms will also find that expected profitability of investment increases as costs of borrowing falls, given that economic conditions remain the same and returns on investments do not change. Thus I increases. Since C and I are components of AD, AD will increase, resulting in an increase in real national output and hence actual economic growth. However, in an open economy, the lower interest rates would likely result in capital outflow. If there is massive capital outflow as funds move to countries which offer higher interest rates, the capital and financial account will worsen. This leads to a worsening balance of payments. Hence, the desire to achieve actual growth via expansionary monetary policy can conflict with the desire to achieve a healthy balance of payments.

Furthermore, there is also a conflict between achieving a healthy balance of payments and price stability. If a country is facing a deficit in its current account and balance of payments, it may make use of demand management policies to improve the current account. For example, an expenditure switching policy of currency depreciation would help decrease the price of exports in terms of foreign currency and increase the price of imports in terms of domestic currency. As export competitiveness increases, the demand for exports and hence export revenue increases. At the same time as imports become more expensive, consumers switch to purchasing domestic goods instead. Assuming that Marshall Lerner condition holds, when IPEDx + PEDmI >1, balance of trade improves. Since X-M increases, AD increases and general price levels increase too.  However, if the economy is import-reliant, the depreciation of the currency could lead to imported inflation as the prices of imported raw materials increase. This causes the SRAS to fall and the general price level to increase. Thus a healthy balance of payments is achieved at the expense of price stability. An example of this would be Singapore, where imported inflation is likely to happen if the currency depreciates. This explains why Singapore is reluctant to depreciate its currency even when BOT is worsening.

In conclusion, there is a need to consider the use of supply side policies in some cases to minimise these trade-offs, conflicts in macroeconomic goals. Alternatively, a suitable mix of government policies may be considered to mitigate possible unintended consequences which may arise.

JC Economics Essays: Special thanks to W for her contribution of this well-written economics essay. However, this economics essay was not done under timed examination conditions. 

This paper explains the possible conflicts amongst macroeconomic goals of governments, and is basically about explaining the various trade offs and conflicts: inflation versus economic growth, internal versus external stability, and other such conflicts. 

There are many good points to learn from this paper. First, it directly addresses the question. It also has many definitions and examples, which suggests that the candidate has learnt her economics material well. The essay is also very well written, and is clear cut, accurate, and to the point; however, perhaps some diagrams could have been drawn. What economics diagrams would you have drawn in this case, and why? Economics essays often benefit from a relevant, well labelled, and accurate diagram that illustrates and analyses a point. Thanks for reading and cheers!