Discuss with relevant examples the best way to sustaining long run economic growth for a small country, such as Singapore, with an aging population. [25]

Economic growth is defined as an increase in the real output of an economy over a period of time. Positive growth means that real output has increased while negative growth means that real output has fallen. Sustaining economic growth means long-run growth, defined as the rate of growth in real output of a country over a extended period of time. For long-run growth to occur, productive growth capacity needs to rise which means that there should be potential growth. Therefore, a sustaining economic growth needs not only actual growth but also potential growth. This essay attempts to explain the impacts on the economic growth due to small country with aging population, various methods to counter these problems and discuss about the best method to achieve a sustaining economic growth.

An aging population in a small country results in two major problems: shrinking labour force and decreasing national income. When there is a shrinking labour force, the burden on the productive workforce in supporting non-productive residents would rise. This means the number of new entrants into the workforce is smaller than the number of people retiring from it. Shrinking size of the workforce results decrease in labour supply. As a factor production, shrinking labour force leads to AS curve to shift left. Therefore, the potential growth slows down. Meanwhile, more retirees have lower income than the time when they work. They feel poorer to consume. Hence, consumption decreases. Shrinking workforce means that firms have more difficulty finding workers, so they might downsize, close down or relocate. They will not want to invest anymore. A decrease in consumption and investment results a decrease in AD as AD = C + I + G + (X – M). Hence, actual growth is reduced. Both AD and AS are likely to decrease due to an aging population; the economy would contract and economic growth would be negative. Hence, there is a need to raise AD and AS. 

[Insert diagram on increase in AD and AS]

From the diagram above, when the AS curve shifts to the right, at full employment level, an increase in AD will not cause demand-pull inflation, hence, a sustaining economic growth is achieved. 

To increase AD, there are several methods, namely, expansionary fiscal policy, expansionary monetary policy and exchange rate policy. 

Expansionary fiscal policy involves raising government spending on infrastructure like transportation, public utilities and telecommunication and on merit goods like education and healthcare. Cutting direct taxes can also have beneficial effects on long run growth. Cutting personal income taxes raises the monetary returns to work thereby increasing the incentive to work harder. Furthermore, more disposable income generates greater savings thereby increasing the funds available for investment. Lastly, cutting corporate taxes raises firm’s post tax profitability and hence their incentive to invest. As AD = C + I + G + (X – M), a increase in C and I and G will then raise AD.

The first limitation of expansionary fiscal policy is that it results in government debt as the government has to borrow to finance its budget to finance a budget deficit. Hence, future welfare is actually being sacrificed for the sake of raising current welfare. Secondly, in a small country with small multiplier (k), expansionary fiscal policy is very costly and not very effective. For instance, Singapore has a high MPS as we have compulsory savings like CPF and also a high MPM due to our dependence on imports. Since k = 1/(MPW) and MPW = MPS + MPT + MPM, Singapore has a high withdrawal and therefore a small multiplier. Thirdly, there is crowding out effect. Expansionary fiscal policy involves running a higher budget deficit that is probably financed from increasing borrowing. The demand for loanable funds rises and hence raising interest rates. This deters consumption (C) and investments (I) and also causes the currency to appreciate, thereby curbing net exports (X – M). As AD = C + I + G + (X – M), AD decreases due to decrease in C, I and (X – M). The expansionary effects of the budget deficits are therefore negated by a reduction in consumption, investments and net exports. Fiscal policy also has limitations like time lags and tax insensitivity. 

Expansionary monetary policy refers to increase money supply by Loanable Funds Theory, hence boost borrowing for consumption and investment. Lowering interest rates also causes hot money outflow, which causes the currency to depreciate because the demand for currency decreases hence boosting net exports. As AD = C + I + G + (X – M), AD is increased due to increase in C and I or (X – M). 

One of the limitations of expansionary monetary policy is the liquidity trap which refers to the situation where interest rates are already so low such that the further cuts in interest rates are unlikely to have any impact in stimulating borrowing. At the extreme, when interest rates hit zero, this means that there is no more room for further interest rates cuts and expansionary monetary policy stops being a viable policy tool. Meanwhile, small country such as Singapore is usually trade dependent. With free capital mobility, and fixed or managed exchange rate, small countries find it hard to implement monetary policy because of the economic trilemma. 

Exchange rate policy can be used to increase AD by depreciation of the currency. When the exchange rate is lowered, consumers find imports more expensive compared with domestic products, hence consume fewer imports. With lower exchange rate, country’s exports are more competitive and the quantity demanded for its exports increases. Hence an increase in net exports results in an increasing AD as AD = C + I + G + (X – M).

However, depreciation of currency will cause imported inflation which is very harmful to import-dependent small countries. These small countries prefer to have fixed or managed exchange rate, hence exchange rate policy may not be used. 

Governments can also use supply-side policies to ensure long-run economic growth. To counter the decreasing AS due to shrinking workforce, governments can choose to increase the quantity of labour or improve the quality of labour. 

The first option is to increase the size of the population with higher birth rates. i.e. pro-natal policies. Tax rebates and subsidies can be given to encourage more births. The labour market can also be regulated to allow for more flexible work arrangements so that parents can better balance work and family commitments. The size of the working population (labour force) can be increased by raising labour force participation. This can be done with policies to encourage non-working women and retirees to re-join the labour force. One way to do so is to increase the retirement age. Policies should also create more flexible and less intensive work arrangements which make jobs less demanding for older workers, hence encouraging them to remain in or to re-join the workforce. 

Besides trying to raise birth rates, a faster and easier way of increasing the size of the labour force is to allow more inflow of foreign labour. i.e. increase immigration. Allowing more inflow of higher skilled foreign labour like doctors, managers and engineers usually does not face that much social and political resistance. Being more educated and generally small in numbers, it is arguably easier for such foreigners to integrate into the local society. To improve the quality of labour force, governments have to increase labour productivity and occupational mobility. This involves two main elements. i.e. education and training. 

However, these supply-side policies have limitations as well. It is very hard to increase birth rate due to the fact that the opportunity cost of having children in terms of the sacrifice in consumption, leisure and career advancement is often too high. Re-joining the workforce is not easy as this cannot prevent people from getting old and retiring early. Immigration creates social tensions and depresses the wages of domestic low skilled labour, thus worsens the country’s income distribution. Education programs typically take many years to implement and their effects are felt only much later. Most of the labours and companies are reluctant to take and set up workshops for training. 

In conclusion, to achieve sustaining economic growth in a small country with aging population, the best way is to use supply-side policies to increase AS which is the root cause of slowing economic growth. Expansionary fiscal policy can be considered as one of the better choices if the small country has a relatively large multiplier hence it will not be so costly to use fiscal policy. Monetary policy is usually not a good choice due to the fact that small country is usually trade dependent and is limited by the economic trilemma. Small country which is usually import dependent will not choose to depreciate its currency. Therefore, supply-side policy is considered as the best way to sustaining economic growth for a small country with an aging population. 

JC Economics Essays - H2 'A' Level standard essay on the Singapore macroeconomy: Economics Tutor's comments. Macroeconomics essays covering the various macroeconomic aims and goals of governments, as well as the demand management policies and supply side policies are important. Often, macroeconomics essay topics will focus on either the goals as a standalone topic, or in conjunction with economic policies. Economics policies often come accompanied with some economics issues or economics news in a preamble, but economic policies can be assessed also on their own theoretical merits. (In a way, that's the beauty of macroeconomics - it can be quite theoretical and while often macro is in the news, and often catches attention with the headlines, in economics examinations macroeconomic policies can be considered theoretically too. The thrill of theory is often too beautiful for economists to ignore.) In any case, the usual economics tutor's questions apply: what are the strengths and what are the weaknesses of this economics paper? Does the student develop her arguments cogently, clearly, and build on theory and real world economic examples? Think about how you could help this student write an even better essay, or how you could help the student to get the highest marks possible. Having said that, this economics essay is very well written for a variety of reasons. The materials presented are wide ranging and very well applied to Singapore's context. There is a lot of economic theory, but also examples as well. The conclusion is nuanced, evaluative, and generally very well written. Note: this essay was written under examination and timed conditions by an actual A level student in a class Economics H2 test (not an economics assignment). Special thanks for AG, SS, and other students for their kind feedback and invaluable contributions and suggestions. 

Evaluate the policies used by the Singapore government to correct imperfect information and the lack of mobility of the FOP? [15]

Evaluate the policies used by the Singapore government to correct these causes (imperfect information and lack of mobility of the factors of production/ resources) of market failure. [15]

Tutor's Quick Note: This is a continuation, part (b), of the previous question on this economics site.

There are many policies that the Singapore government can implement to correct market failure due to imperfect information and due to immobility of resources. This paper evaluates the Singapore government’s policies in correcting imperfect information and lack of resource mobility, and the evaluation here is whether these policies solve the underlying cause, causing the market failure, directly.

First, we examine subsidies for merit goods like subsidized healthcare, to compensate for consumers’ undervaluation of them and suppliers’ underproduction of them. Secondly, we also examine state intervention in the form of taxes to solve negative externalities. These two examinations address positive and negative externalities which are unknown or unconsidered by private consumers and producers and thus cause market failure.

Insert Economics diagram. Think: which diagram is relevant here? How would you explain it?

The economic answer is clear: increasing subsidies solves the problem of positive externalities being unacknowledged, while increasing taxes solves negative externalities. For instance, there are portions of the budget set aside for subsidized healthcare for senior citizens. Provision of food stamps and rations for low-income families, a wide umbrella of social services to provide free counseling for problem cases such as troubled teenagers, marital and family problems, and other services which private markets tend to fail in. These subsidies cost money, and perhaps that might be a problem, due to opportunity cost, which is the cost of the next best alternatives foregone. Yet, it is still possible to argue that using a cost benefit analysis the costs of the subsidies are worth it.

Furthermore, smoking, which is a demerit good, which has negative externalities, is heavily taxed in Singapore. These show that the Singapore government has done the right thing by removing distortions caused by people not taking externalities into account. The underlying causes indeed were taken into account.

Secondly, there can be the direct provision of information, for instance, with respect to smoking as well as insurance and unit trusts. The public often over-value demerit goods like cigarettes and tobacco, causing market failure as consumers overestimate the marginal benefits of it. The government thus runs a full series of anti-smoking campaigns trying to educate consumers such that they make informed decisions and are fully aware of health consequences in purchasing cigarettes. This does not fully correct market failure but mitigates it. Regarding cost-benefit analysis, this is viable due to the low costs of mass media campaigns but sustainable benefits of consumer knowledge. In Singapore, there is the Financial Advisers Act, under which independent advisory firms act as intermediaries between agents (insurance companies) and principals (consumers), acting to inform and educate consumers fully about insurance products from all insurance firms and providing proper product recommendation. This policy can correct market failure in the long run as many consumers are reliant on private insurance providers. However, it has its sustainable benefits as independent advisory advisers earn their remuneration from the portfolio growth of their clients, thus aligning their interests. Lack of information thus necessitates more information. Therefore, possibly the underlying causes were taken into account.

In Singapore, the most immobile form of capital is labour, which the government has targeted constantly. Capital flows are all flexible in Singapore, as from the beginning we have had a focus on external MNCs and foreign direct investment. We focus here on labour. Has the government done a good job here?

The government can solve the problem of immobility of factors of production: first, job matching and training schemes to link up supply and demand forces in the labour market. Colleges have job centers to facilitate the process in which graduates get their credentials matched to suitable jobs. Similar job matching centers under the National Trades Union Centre (NTUC) are widely available, all measures to improve structural rigidities, to reduce time-lags in factors of employment is responding to market demands. Perhaps the only criticism might be in terms of costs of training and opportunity costs. The underlying economic causes were taken into account. Increasing information and increasing training solve frictional unemployment and structural unemployment and hence reduce immobility of labour greatly.

Regarding trade union pressures, all agents representing workers’ benefits come under the NTUC, which tries to incorporate employee and firm interests, aligning them to national interests. Politicking at workplaces and lobbying are actively stopped by the Singapore government. This is a measure that only works for Singapore, in which political power is centralized and the state can intervene. Singapore’s uniqueness works in its favour here.

However, for other countries with many federal states, lobbying and union pressure is still abundant, which proactively try to manipulate prices and market systems for their own interests. Hence it might be only possible for Singapore to use the internationally famous tripartite method of solving immobility of labour.

In conclusion, Singapore has many heavy duty weapons in its arsenal for reducing imperfect information and immobility of labour. However, any policy used must be checked for its effectiveness in solving the underlying problems that cause the market failure.

JC ECONOMICS ESSAYS Tutor's Comments: This was written by a former Economics student of mine (from MJC) under examination conditions. I would not have approached this economics question this way; however this quite skilfully written economics paper is very good and very clear. Do, however, ask yourself a few questions. How would you have written it, to address the question? How would you have improved on it? There are many other ways to approach this question that would have also adequately addressed its specialised requirements. Do remember to think of how you can learn from this Economics essay. Thank you for reading and cheers.