What is the economic impact of Brexit on Asian economies?

This economics post explains and analyses the possible economic consequences of Brexit on Asian economies and was created through synthesising a few economics essays. 

On 23 June 2016, in a historical moment that will be a discussion topic that would stand the test of time, citizens of the United Kingdom (the UK) voted in a national referendum on their continued membership in the European Union (the EU), ultimately choosing to leave. 

This huge event is called “Brexit”. 

What is the economic impact of Brexit on Asian economies? 

Brexit has negatively impacted global financial markets, causing economic volatility and huge losses of trillions of dollars in equity value. 

Meanwhile, the UK pound has seen the largest drop by any major world currency in recent history, and its largest drop since 1985.

On the surface, the UK leaving the EU would not matter that much economically to Asia’s economies. 

Although the UK is prima facie the world’s fifth-largest economy (now that is not the case any more, apparently as an immediate economic impact of  Brexit, because it has been overtaken by France), the UK is not actually one of Asia’s biggest economic customers. 

Except for Cambodia, Vietnam, and Hong Kong, most exports from most economies in Asia to the UK are relatively small as a percentage of total economic output. 

For Singapore, a small and open economy located in Southeast Asia, the UK is a relatively small customer. Singapore’s exports to the UK totalled S$7 billion in 2015, out of S$530 billion in total exports. 

Quite simply put, in the immediate or short term, the economic impact has been rapid and direct so far. In the immediate term - it's the economic impact on markets and currencies that matter currently. 

But the real and longer term impact of a “Brexit” – for Asia and the rest of the world – is much bigger than just merely market or economic volatility. 

The real economic impact of Brexit would be more subtle than any immediate effect on trade or markets. 

It would represent an economic slowdown – and maybe the first steps of a economic reversal – of the globalisation that has defined markets in recent decades. 

There are many definitions of globalisation, but in this case, globalisation refers to the increasing integration and interdependence of the world’s economies arising from increased international trade and greater international mobility of factors of production like capital, labour, and enterprise across international borders. 

Asia has a lot to lose from this rollback of international trade or decline in economic globalisation. 

Many Asian countries rely heavily on international trade. 

For instance, Singapore’s international trade stands at 351 percent of its GDP, and it amounts to 439 percent of Hong Kong’s GDP. Growth in international trade has been slowing in recent years, and Brexit could slow trade and growth down further. 

For example, the UK takes fully three-quarters of Singapore's investments in the EU with big companies like Comfort DelGro and Frasers having an international presence in that country. The UK out of EU could lead to significant fall in Singapore's exports to the EU, and Singapore international businesses could suffer write-downs in economic value on their balance sheets.

If there is a rise in protectionist sentiment in the UK, this might spread to other countries as well. 

Protectionism refers to economic policies aimed at restricting international trade between countries, designed to protect domestic businesses and workers from international competition, while free international trade refers to the exchange of goods and services across international boundaries. 

Recently, other than just the UK government, many governments (and a famous US Presidential candidate from "across the pond") have been adopting or promoting protectionist measures in the belief that this would offset the impacts on their economies from international trade and globalisation.

China would likely have some major economic concerns. The EU is an even bigger destination for Chinese goods than the United States.

The EU is China’s largest trading partner, and as China enters an era of slower economic growth, the timing of the breakup of the European Union couldn’t be worse.

For China, the UK's decision to eventually extricate itself from the European Union’s common market will be a disappointing move. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has taken a particular economic interest in the UK, reciprocated in recent years by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. Last fall, London became the first international financial hub to issue renminbi-denominated debt after Xi Jinping’s visit there. Brexit will be an economic setback for the ongoing internationalization of renminbi as London’s international relevance as a global financial hub is diminished as a result of Brexit. 

Brexit could also challenge some of the international trade deals focused on further opening the rest of the world to ASEAN economies. The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), for example, are aimed at cutting international tariff barriers and promoting international trade with some of the world’s largest economies. 

Brexit could also mark an economic setback for China’s long-term economic goal of a free trade agreement with the EU. London had emerged as one of the most eager advocates for a China-EU FTA. 

With the UK now exiting the economic bloc, none of the other major EU states seem keen to ink an economic deal with Beijing. An FTA with the UK alone might be politically simpler to negotiate, but will not have nearly the same economic benefits for China. 

Remember that a Free Trade Area (FTA) refers to a trade bloc where more than two countries agree to engage in free trade with one another while maintaining members’ own individual levels of external barriers against non-member nations.

In the longer term, no one really knows what the economic impact will be - but it certainly will not be a walk in the park for UK or Asia, or Singapore, and only time will tell if Brexit really was a good economic decision ... 

or if the economic experts were right in saying that this was one of the worst economic decisions of all time. 

JC Economics Essays is an economics website which has a wide and useful range of economics resources and free lesson materials for students' own use, such as economics essays at the A level standard (H1, H2, H3, and A level standards), and undergraduate and masters economics essays. The main focus is on A level economics essays, but GCE, GCSE, AS, AO, and H1/2/3 economics essays are in this site too. In particular, JC Economics Essays has model A level economics essays and responses that students could use as an easy and relevant reference for learning, as well as relevant tips and techniques for writing strong and well-argued essays. A whole range of useful case study tips, essay writing techniques, and relevant opinion pieces on a relevant range of economic topics will help you learn economics effectively. Thank you for reading, and cheers.

To what extent does "traditional" or "standard" economic theory explain Singapore's FTAs? [15]

A Free Trade Area (FTA) refers to a trade bloc where more than two countries agree to engage in free trade with one another while maintaining members’ own individual levels of external barriers against non-member nations; for instance, the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). This economics paper discusses the extent to which economic theory, in particular trade creation and trade diversion, explains Singapore’s FTAs, while arguing that non-traditional and other non-economic considerations also play a role in explaining Singapore’s FTAs. 

First, how do the standard economic theories of trade creation and trade diversion explain FTAs in theory? Trade creation arises when entry into a FTA causes the production of a good to be shifted from a less efficient to a more efficient producer, while trade diversion arises when entry into a FTA causes the production of a good to be shifted from a more efficient to a less efficient producer. A country joins a FTA if it expects to benefit from overall trade creation; economic theory suggests that a country chooses whether or not to enter a FTA based on whether trade creation outweighs trade diversion. When countries join a FTA, the country gains from a rise in export demand and export prices, resulting in an improvement in the terms of trade. When there is trade creation, the country benefits from importing a good at a cost that is lower that what it could produce domestically. Hence when there is trade creation, the country benefits from joining a FTA. Conversely, when there is trade diversion, the country ends up paying more for its imports as it is now importing from a relatively more inefficient foreign producer and this worsens its terms of trade. If the rise in import prices exceed the rise in export prices, the terms of trade worsens, hence the country should not join the FTA. 

However, despite standard economic analysis, since Singapore has no initial trade barriers for almost all goods and services, it experiences neither trade creation nor trade diversion, so Singapore’s decision to join an FTA must be based on other considerations other than trade creation and trade diversion, such as gaining new export markets, creating more transhipment business, attracting FDI, enhancing bilateral relations with its neighbours, and improving cooperation on security issues. 

This economics paper now discusses other possible reasons that could suggest why countries choose whether or not to enter an FTA with Singapore. The first alternative reason could be that the signing of an FTA with Singapore enables the country’s exports to bypass trade barriers and gain access to a third party market that also has an FTA with Singapore. For example, China may get to enjoy tariff-free access (or at least tariff reductions) to the USA if they were to export their goods through Singapore rather than exporting their goods directly to the USA. 

Secondly, Singapore may also be offering some other benefits to a FTA partner. For example, Singapore could offer to transfer knowledge and technology to the other country, and this would result in the signing of FTAs despite the fact that other countries already know that Singapore has little or no trade barriers on their goods. 

Thirdly, extradition treaties and cooperation in security issues could also be part of the agreement. For instance, countries could sign FTAs in Singapore in order to ensure that wealthy tax evaders do not escape the law in their country by bringing their wealth to Singapore, and these tax evaders can be extradited back home to face trial in their home countries. Hence, political considerations also come into play alongside economic ones.

Fourth, and arguably most importantly, by negotiating a vast network of FTAs, Singapore enhances its position as a shipping hub because Singapore’s transhipment is an important aspect of the Singapore economy. Transhipment refers to the shipping of goods to an intermediate destination, on their way to their final destination, and this is a major aspect of Singapore’s maritime trade. Transhipment increases Singapore’s earnings from port and shipping related services as more ships stop at Singapore to offload the goods that are meant for re-export. The FTAs also draw in foreign investments because foreign firms need to set up processing operations here in order to meet the requirements stipulated by the Rules of Origin. Hence, transhipment operations could explain why Singapore has signed so many FTAs.

In conclusion, trade creation and trade diversion go a small way to explain why Singapore enters FTAs, and it can be argued that non-economic reasons go a longer way in explaining why Singapore enters FTAs with other countries, because Singapore’s lack of tariffs does not permit her to have trade creation, which suggests that other considerations are more important. Thus, standard economic theory based on trade creation and diversion only explains at best a small part of Singapore's FTA networks, whereas practical real world considerations like third parties bypassing trade barriers, technological transfer, political considerations, and transhipment explain why Singapore signs FTAs to a very large extent. In my view, the most important explanation for Singapore’s FTAs is the rise of globalisation, which has led to the need for third parties to bypass trade barriers, increased international mobility, and led to the rise of the importance of non-economic, political reasons for such agreements.

JC Economics Essays - H2 Economics essay on trade creation and trade diversion, and Singapore's Free Trade Agreements. This economics essay was crafted by two co-authors to explain the economics ideas and concepts of trade creation and trade diversion for an economics tutorial on economic integration (a topic closely related to international trade and globalisation). Remember to reflect on the essay as you read it. Focus on the evaluative conclusion for a moment. What is good about the evaluation, and what can be made even better? What would be a better way to craft the evaluative conclusion? Thank you for reading and cheers! 

Analyse the impact of FTAs on the Singapore economy and assess the extent to which the impact of FTAs has been positive. [25m]

Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are highways that connect Singapore to major economies and markets. With FTAs, Singapore-based exporters stand to enjoy many benefits like tariff concessions, preferential access to certain sectors, and faster entry into markets.

Analyse the impact of FTAs on the Singapore economy and assess the extent to which the impact of FTAs has been positive. [25m]

Note: The original essay was edited two-fold - first, to fit into this JC Economics Essay blog post; second, to remove diagrams/graphics. Hence it is entirely in verbal (English) form. 

A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a legally-binding agreement to liberalise trade and bring about closer economic integration between member countries. FTAs aim to remove barriers to trade and investment and create a free flow of goods, services, investment, and people. Under a FTA, member countries provide each other with favourable treatment for goods, services, and investment. Such favourable treatments include reduced tariffs, easier access to markets, and opening up of various sectors for investment opportunities. Thus, FTAs help to foster and facilitate the flow of trade and investment between Singapore and its trading partners with the aim of achieving economic growth and development. FTAs bring about both positive and negative impacts on the Singapore economy. However, the government has implemented policies to mitigate these negative impacts and the overall impact of FTAs on the Singapore economy is largely positive.

The Singapore economy is open to the world, in trade and investment. This openness to trade is a necessity because of its small size and lack of natural resources.

Figure 1 illustrates the effect of a tariff on imports. The original import expenditure for country A is shown by area Oaeq0, the price of imports is Oa and the quantity of imports is Oq0. For a country with price-elastic demand for imports, when the tariff is imposed, the price of imports rises to Ob and the quantity of imports fall to Oq1. Import expenditure is represented by area Obfq1. There is a reduction in import expenditure as the fall in quantity demanded of imports is greater than the rise in price of imports. For a country with price-inelastic demand for imports, when the tariff is imposed, the price of imports rises to Oc and the quantity of imports fall to Oq2. Import expenditure is represented by area Ocdq2. There is an increase in import expenditure as the fall in quantity demanded of imports is less than the increase in price of imports.

This illustrates the positive impact of free trade on the Singapore economy and is one of the key reasons why Singapore campaigns actively for the removal of tariffs and the setting up of FTAs. It has a relatively price-inelastic demand for imports since it has no natural resources and has to import both food as well as inputs for production. Imposing tariffs on such goods will have more adverse effects for its economy than gains.

On the export side, domestic producers in Singapore gain from an enlarged export market. Thus, they are able to reap internal economies of scale and earn greater export revenue. In addition, the reduction, or removal, of tariffs results in cheaper exports, which will lead to an increase in export demand and revenue. The increase in net exports increases aggregate demand and in turn increases national income, employment, and short-run growth if the economy is operating below full employment. On the other hand, if the economy is near or at full employment, the boost of net exports might lead to demand-pull inflation.

The other benefit that FTAs bring to the Singapore economy is that it allows countries to specialise in producing goods in which they have a comparative advantage in to a greater extent. Comparative advantage is the idea that relative opportunity costs of production must be taken into account when trading between countries. Consumers benefit from lower-priced goods, as Singapore’s trading partners are able to produce these goods more efficiently due to their comparative advantage. Also, there is both a greater variety of goods available and better quality of products. The removal of tariffs means that domestic producers face greater competition from foreign producers, which will boost the efficiency of domestic production and the quality of products.

Lastly, Singapore benefits from greater foreign direct investment. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) refers to long-term capital inflows, which typically takes the form of a Multinational Corporation (MNC) investing in an enterprise that is outside the economy of the MNC. The greater inflow of capital will have a positive impact on the Balance of Payment (BOP), creating a surplus in the BOP. Foreign direct investment will also result in an increase in capital accumulation, which increases the productive capacity of the economy and short-run economic growth. In addition, the diffusion of technology from the MNCs to domestic producers will increase the level of productivity and lead to long-run economic growth.

On the other hand, FTAs bring about negative impacts on the Singapore economy. First, structural unemployment arises in industries that are in direct competition with other lower-cost trading partners due to a loss of comparative advantage.  There will be a decline in production levels and employment in some of Singapore’s sectors such as manufacturing. This results in structural unemployment, as these workers are not equipped with the skills required to work in the newly-created sectors. In addition, new technology increases the importance on skills and substitutes for relatively low-skill inputs. Technology replaces low-skilled jobs, exacerbating the problem of unemployment.

Second, FTAs cause member countries to become more vulnerable to external events. FTAs foster closer trade links among member countries, and as a result increases the interdependence of their economies. This means that a recession in one country may quickly spread to other countries, which are its trading partners, an effect known as the “contagion effect”. In the case of Singapore, higher reliance on imports makes the economy more vulnerable to the threat of imported inflation, while reliance on exports to drive economic growth may make Singapore more vulnerable to external shocks. There is also the possibility of an increase in long-term capital outflow due to greater opportunities in member countries.

The above illustrate that FTAs have both positive and negative impacts on the Singapore economy. The government has put in place measures to mitigate the negative impacts and has been largely successful in reducing the problems of demand-pull inflation, structural unemployment and vulnerability to external shocks.

To tackle the threat of demand-pull inflation due to the growth in exports and investment, as well as the threat of imported inflation, the Singapore government has put in place an exchange rate policy of gradually appreciating the Singapore Dollar. A gradual appreciation of the Singapore Dollar keeps the price of imports relatively low, reducing the possibility of imported inflation. A gradual appreciation of the Singapore Dollar also prevents excessive increases in export demand and hence aggregate demand, reducing demand-pull inflation.

To tackle structural unemployment, Singapore has adopted manpower policies to equip workers with the skills required to work in the newly created industries, for instance biotechnology. The government also spearheads Research & Development (R&D) projects to develop new areas of growth and new dynamic comparative advantage, such as the biomedical sector, in the face of the erosion of Singapore’s comparative advantage in an attempt to search for new markets.

The government uses supply side policies to deal with the third problem of vulnerability to external shocks. Singapore’s economic strategy is outward-oriented. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are encouraged to venture overseas to reduce the dependence of our current account on exports and hence, the Balance of Trade (BOT). With SMEs investing abroad, this will lead to an inflow in the current account in the long run. This helps to reduce the vulnerability of Singapore’s economy to changing global conditions.

There is evidence that the above policies have been successful. The exchange rate policy has been effective in keeping inflation at a consistently low and stable level. The government also managed to develop new high-value added industries such as biomedical and life sciences to replace jobs in the lower-skilled manufacturing sector, in which Singapore is rapidly losing its comparative advantage. The outward orientation policy has also proven to be effective in helping Singapore cope with changes in global conditions. However, it takes time for supply side policies to work. Thus, in the short run the drawbacks of FTAs appear to be large, but in the long run, the positive impact of FTAs outweighs the negative impact when the policies take effect.

In conclusion, the signing of FTAs brings about benefits and detriments. Nevertheless, the long-run benefits tend to outweigh the short-run drawbacks and the Singapore’s government policies to mitigate the negative effects of FTAs have been relatively successful. Singapore is a small economy with a lack of natural resources. It benefits from the removal of tariffs, as its demand for imports is inelastic. Domestic producers benefit from entry into the markets of its trading partners and consumer welfare increases as consumers are able to obtain lower cost goods produced by Singapore’s trading partners.  FTAs also encourage foreign direct investment and technology transfer from MNCs, which contribute towards economic development and growth of Singapore. The main negative impacts of FTAs are demand-pull inflation, structural unemployment and vulnerability to external shocks. These impacts have been mitigated by the exchange rate policy, supply side policy and outward orientation measures put in place by the Singapore government. The Singapore government continues to campaign for the setting up of FTAs as they seek new opportunities in emerging markets such as China, India, Russia, and Latin America.

JC Economics Essays - Tutor's Commentary:  Once again, note that the original was edited two-fold - first, to fit into this JC Economics Essay blogpost; second, to remove diagrams. It is well written and crafted, and was done professionally. Given that this essay was written professionally and not under examination conditions, if an Economics student could write about half the standard of this paper, he would get more than a decent grade. Having said that, the usual questions apply: how can I write an essay better? How can I improve on this paper? 

(b) To what extent is fiscal policy the most effective measure to lower the unemployment rate in Singapore? [15]

Singapore’s unemployment rate could surge to a 20-year high of 5 percent next year. This would be the highest level of unemployment since 1986.

Adapted from The Straits Times, February 2009

(b) To what extent is fiscal policy the most effective measure to lower the unemployment rate in Singapore? [15]

Fiscal policy is the use of government spending and taxes to affect the AD of an economy in order to pursue the macroeconomic goals of governments. In the case of unemployment, expansionary fiscal policy can be used – where the government increases government spending and lowers taxes (both personal income and corporate) in order to boost AD. This essay argues that to a large extent, while fiscal policy has the potential to work in Singapore, it is not the most effective measure to lower the unemployment rate and there are many other measures which are more effective given Singapore’s context.

Fiscal policy

It is clear that on the one hand fiscal policy in theory can reduce cyclical unemployment. With an increase in government spending and lowering of income taxes and corporate taxes, C, I and G increase and thus AD shifts to the right. Due to the multiplier effect, real national income would increase, and as real output increases, there would be a need for more workers. This would overcome cyclical unemployment.

Also fiscal policy, if spent on infrastructure and other areas such as skills upgrading, can lead to solving structural unemployment. For instance, the Singapore government spends a lot of money on the Workforce Development Agency. If the fiscal policy is directed towards increasing the supply side (supply side policy), then the skills gap between workers and those required by industries might be solved and thus structural unemployment might not be a problem. Hence, fiscal policy does have some strengths and could be used as a viable policy.

Limitations of fiscal policy

On the other hand, there are limitations of fiscal policy given Singapore’s context. The multiplier effect is small, given Singapore’s high MPM and MPS (marginal propensity to import and save). Alternatively, it can be said that there are many leakages given Singapore’s context – as it is small and open. Also, a cut in taxes may lead to a small shift in C and I if there is widespread economic pessimism, and a reluctance to spend more money. In addition, there is a time lag effect where it takes a long time to formulate policies to decide on the appropriate tax cuts and which type of government spending to raise.

Other policies might work better

Furthermore, fiscal policy may not be the most effective policy to reduce cyclical unemployment. There are two other policies that might be able to reduce unemployment better in Singapore’s context. The first is exchange rate policy and the second is signing of new FTAs (Free Trade Agreements).

First, given that Singapore is a small and export oriented economy, where the total value of exports and imports comprise more than her GDP, an exchange rate policy could be implemented. In Singapore’s case, due to the classic trilemma, Singapore does not pursue monetary policy but instead pursues an exchange rate policy through the use of a managed float system (dirty floating). Depreciating the Singapore dollar would lead to an increase in (X-M) and thus increase real output and lower unemployment in Singapore by shifting AD to the right to the full employment level. At the same time it should also be noted that there is no perfect policy because cost push inflation could be a result of this exchange rate policy as the higher prices of imported raw materials into Singapore could lead to higher prices. Given that Singapore imports a lot of her raw materials and goods and services, this is a distinct possibility.

Second, by signing more FTAs Singapore has more access to international, foreign markets. This will help Singapore reduce her reliance on major trading partners if those countries experience recession. Thus, if X goes up, then AD will also increase, and thus cyclical unemployment will be lowered as the economy experiences actual growth if the FTAs are successful. On the other hand there are also search costs and increased competition with local producers in Singapore which might not be politically acceptable, and Singapore might also become more susceptible to external shocks to her economy.

Third, by increasing information available to workers, the government can reduce frictional unemployment. This is a simple solution that does not involve fiscal spending or exchange rates or FTAs, and should be used to reduce frictional unemployment.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the dominant cause of unemployment in Singapore is likely to be cyclical unemployment because the economy is dependent heavily on external markets, and therefore while fiscal policy can be used, it is not effective to a large extent, given the small multiplier effect. Given the changing dynamic comparative advantage of Singapore’s economy, it is imperative that policies to lower structural unemployment have to be considered seriously as well. In the final conclusion, both fiscal and other policies have to be used together to reduce the various types of unemployment in Singapore.

JC Economics Essays - Tutor's Commentary: This H2 Economics essay is also very well written, and addresses the question pertinently. The usual questions are: what can I do better, what I can improve on, and what have I learnt from reading this essay? This essay and the previous part were both very professionally written and specially designed and targeted specifically to answer the question. Yes, there can be alternative views, and there should be different approaches - but what is the strength of this approach? What have you learnt from here?

*PS I have had the sudden and rather zany idea that I should indeed try to make this site the most popular free Economics website for students reading the A levels ... and why not? I shall just do my best. Special thanks to my wonderful and encouraging students (you guys know who you are) who have complimented me on my Economics website. I will do my best. Cheers :) *